Summary:
Key Focus:
Labor market (ADP, NFP, claims)
Oil / inflation risk (G7)
Fed signals
Monday (Mar 30)
G7 meeting → discussion on strategic oil reserves
U.S. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
Tuesday (Mar 31)
China Manufacturing PMI
U.S. JOLTs Job Openings
Wednesday (Apr 1)
Tesla & EV Q1 delivery data
U.S. ADP employment
U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI
U.S. Retail Sales
Thursday (Apr 2)
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
Friday (Apr 3)
U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) ⭐
U.S. Unemployment Rate
U.S. Services PMI
Comment:
The market consensus probably does not change unless one of two things happens:
oil keeps climbing enough to revive stagflation fear, or U.S. data weaken enough to break confidence in growth resilience.
The market is still anchored on a soft-landing narrative, and unless something clearly breaks that assumption, the overall structure likely holds. The two key areas to watch are oil and labor data. If oil continues to rise due to geopolitical risks, it could revive stagflation concerns, one of the few developments that can genuinely shift market expectations. At the same time, U.S. labor data (especially nonfarm payrolls) will test whether growth remains resilient or is starting to weaken.
Everything else, Fed speeches, earnings, and sector-specific data, is more about reinforcing or slightly adjusting the narrative, rather than changing it. In short, the market doesn’t need more information; it needs confirmation or contradiction of its core assumptions. And right now, those assumptions are still intact — but increasingly being tested.
Disclaimer:
The above content reflects personal views and market discussion only. It does not constitute any investment advice or recommendation to buy or sell. Investing involves risk, and readers should make their own assessments and bear responsibility for their own decisions.