Summary:
From Crisis to Comeback Narrative
Intel reported a $18.8B loss in 2024, its worst in 56 years, leading to the removal of former CEO Pat Gelsinger. A new CEO has since repositioned the company.Big Tech Returning to Intel
Major players including NVIDIA, Google, and Tesla are partnering with Intel across CPUs, foundry, and AI infrastructure projects, driving renewed market interest.AI Demand Is Overflowing TSMC Capacity
TSMC is operating at capacity, with long wait times for advanced packaging (CoWoS). This creates an urgent need for alternative suppliers, benefiting Intel.Intel’s Strategic Shift: Foundry & Infrastructure Focus
Under new leadership, Intel is shifting from competing directly in AI chips to becoming an AI infrastructure provider, focusing on:Foundry services
Advanced packaging (EMIB, Foveros)
Xeon CPUs as AI system hosts
Early Momentum but Still Early Stage
Intel’s stock rebound is driven by partnerships and sentiment shifts, but:Foundry revenue remains very small (~$100M–$300M annually)
Technology still lags TSMC in density and maturity
Profitability remains weak
Execution Risk Remains High
Key uncertainties include:Whether 18A process can reach competitive yields
Whether external customers will scale meaningfully
Whether future nodes (e.g., 14A) will proceed
Whether packaging and ASIC businesses can deliver real revenue